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HOSTILITIES, A MEANS TO AN END?

After thirty four days of what can only be described as “Blitzkrieg” by the Israeli air force and a much longer period of Hezbollah sniping at northern Israel with the Katousha rockets supplied by Syria and Iran the two factions have been “Persuaded” to observe a ceasefire. The cities of Beirut and Tyre lie in ruins a smouldering reminder of the Arab intolerance of the Jewish state and the assertion of Israel that “They have nowhere else to go and they will stay whatever the surrounding Arab states do to make them leave”. Haifa has sustained damage too as has Tel Aviv but nowhere close to the same scale.
To say that the war is over would be “Optimistic” as this war has been in progress since day one of the Jewish state of Israel in 1948 and after fifty-eight years of conflict the result has remained the same, Israel is a fact of life and its existence has been bought and will continue to be bought by the blood of its people.
There is and always has been a better way for the Arab nations to achieve their aim though the subtly of it has escaped the greatest Arab minds for more than half a century, it is a cheaper solution, there would be no loss of life, no collateral damage and very few outside Israel would ever know what was taking place. This course however would yield no visible victory, no political kudos and no recognition for those who prosecute the action so perhaps it is not in the Arab arsenal of possibilities to be considered.

The one and overriding aspect that permeates Jewish life is the survival of the state of Israel, it is a remnant from the past when a European state tried to solve the “Jewish question” and failed. It gave Israel a reason to exist and Christian guilt was largely responsible for the creation of the Jewish homeland. With the influx of displaced Jews from all over the world came a common purpose, to survive. The flotsam of humanity that was the remnants of a nation came home to Israel and within hours many found themselves holding a gun defending the ground they stood upon. The Arab attack in 1948 did something that five thousand years of Jewish culture failed to do; it united the Jewish people into the state of Israel. It has been that way ever since because they have always been under attack from their Arab neighbours, they unite in adversity not in co-operation. A cursory look at the delicate power balance inside Israel should demonstrate just how little the Arabs would have to do to destroy the state completely.
All that the Arabs would have to do is “Nothing”. It would take a while but all they have to do is wait for Israel to implode under the weight of internal bickering and intrigues when they no longer have a common enemy to be defeated on a battlefield for this is one country that has never known peace.

The United Nations brokered a peace of sorts although there had been no declaration of war, Koffi Anan called it a “Ceasefire” and for the first time in many years the Lebanese army was “Permitted” to take effective control of their own land that lay within 30 miles of the border between Israel and Lebanon. This ceasefire began
on Monday 14th August amid claims and counter claims of infringements by both sides. The bulldozers began clearing the devastation of Beirut and Tyre whilst commencing the search for more than 1000 victims that were believed to be trapped in the rubble following the bombing and air attacks by the Israeli air force. The location of the suspected dead in the Lebanese cities bore a direct relationship to the launch sites used by Hezbollah to launch the Syrian made Katousha rockets into Israel. Hezbollah deliberately launched the rockets from heavily populated residential areas because the collateral damage caused by any retaliation by Israel would almost certainly incur civilian casualties on a scale that would be abhorrent to the international community trying to put an end to the carnage. Hezbollah due to the callous disregard for the safety of Lebanese citizens holds that so many civilians died in the attacks because the Israeli air force had indiscriminately attacked civilian areas. Their cynical need to secure as much adverse publicity against Israel as possible was and still is at the expense of the civilian lives of Lebanese men, women and children who had no part in the fighting. Tellingly, of the suspected but as yet unconfirmed casualties buried under the rubble in the Lebanese cities over 700 are thought to be Christians and the minority are Muslims. This would seem to fit the “Numbers game” played by Hezbollah who’s stated aims include not only the destruction of the state of Israel but also the creation of a new Muslim state within the borders of Lebanon. A civil war in Lebanon between Muslim and Christian would hasten the end of the present government and perhaps leave a path to power clear for Hezbollah. However the political wing of Hezbollah may wish to review the possibility of actually taking office, their southern counterparts and allies Hamas found to their cost that whilst it is a relatively simple matter to launch a rocket attack or pull the trigger of a AK47 running a country is a much more difficult proposition.
The “Ceasefire” lasted almost five days before it was violated by both sides and as usual Israel’s violation was as a direct result of an act of war by Hezbollah aided and supported by Syrian backing who like Hezbollah have little interest in a peace in Lebanon that does not leave a Muslim government in power.

On the fifth day of the ceasefire Hezbollah accused Israel of violating the peace by launching a commando/special forces raid deep into Lebanon at the eastern end of the Becca valley, their objective was the destruction of Syrian trucks loaded with Katousha rockets sent by Syria to Hezbollah under the cover of the UN ceasefire. The Becca valley comprises territory belonging to two countries Lebanon and Syria and contains a trail that has been previously used to supply Hezbollah from Syria. The “Action” resulted in four deaths, three Israelis and one acknowledged Hezbollah operative along with several wounded on both sides.
Hezbollah’s action in the procurement of the missiles was the primary violation but Israel’s attack was an equal violation, both should have put the matter into the hands of the UN. The problem is as it has been for many years the UN peacekeeping force in the area is as ineffectual now as it has been since the end of the last civil war in Lebanon, Hezbollah knew this and took advantage of the weakness before the force was strengthened, Israel knew that the UN could not respond and took executive action.
The questions no one has so far put into words are: When the current conflict erupted Hezbollah said it had 12000 rocket’s trained on Israel yet they have expended less than one third of what they said they have so why the dire need to replenish their arsenal for a ceasefire or possibly a “Peace”? The only conclusion to be drawn is that they fully intend to resume hostilities as soon as they are re-supplied and their boasts of having 12000 rockets included those still on the assembly lines in the factories of Syria and Iran. The only part of the order unfulfilled was delivery, which was why Israeli Special Forces found themselves in the eastern end of the Becca valley on what was arguably Syrian territory last Saturday. Their action was intended to prevent further attacks by Hezbollah upon the civilian population of northern Israel; it was in fact a paramilitary police action in the absence of effective UN intervention.
Since the UN announcement by Koffi Anan that a ceasefire would begin on Monday 14th August the international community and in particular the EEC states have been trying to put together an international force to put at the disposal of the UN in the Middle East. Their “Desire” for peace seems proportional to the amount of manpower that the European nations are willing to commit to the UN force. Italy, one of Europe’s most fractious governments has allotted two to three thousand troops whilst France, one of Europe’s more affluent partners is only able to send “Two hundred”?
There has been criticism of France for its poor diplomatic response to the conflict and suggestions that the French armaments industry may have more than a passing interest in the continuance of the conflict. Whilst in the UK aircraft carrying arms for Israel have been refuelled at a commercial airport in Scotland en-route from the USA to Tel Aviv. Surely the same operational misdemeanour that caused the infringement of the ceasefire at the eastern end of the Becca Valley.

One fact seems very clear; there is not enough international commitment to the cause of peace in the Middle East away from the conference tables as there is at them. Too many vested interests and hidden agendas would like to see Hezbollah become a distant memory of a defeated terrorist organisation. The intended exclusion zone in southern Lebanon, the condition of the ceasefire that puts 30 miles of Lebanon between the Israeli border and Hezbollah will not work because it is to be policed by the Lebanese army where the ranks hold many Hezbollah sympathisers who will turn a blind eye when called upon to do so.

Whilst the UN wrestles with the logistics of providing a peacekeeping force the no one really wants to succeed Israel claims that it has been victorious in its engagement of Hezbollah forcing the terrorist army to withdraw from its borders, Hezbollah for its part also claims a “Glorious victory” claiming to have shown that the Israeli army is not invincible [a view echoed by speeches emanating from Damascus]. Meanwhile In Iran where the Islamic nuclear bomb becomes more of a reality every day there was a test firing of a rocket this week that was designed to wind up the concern in Israel that a nuclear armed enemy is becoming more than capable of delivering a nuclear device from its home territory directly to Israel. The rocket was a long-range delivery system designed to reach Tel Aviv and Iran’s nuclear facility at Istfahan is close to providing the payload.

JP.

Posted: August 23, 2006

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